i'm dan fitzpatrick at stock andoptionmarketmentor.com on thursday, january 24th. in this video i want to look at apple ( $aapl apple inc ). look, here's the deal,
aapl stock market, i saw somebody on "fast money" lastweek, i don't know who it was, i forget, and that's probably a good thing, they were saying definitively that thebottom is in, like the bottom
is in, the bottom is in, in apple ( $aapl apple inc ). look, if you're listening to people make callson cnbc, and i'm not singling out this guy who ever he is, if you're listening to people make calls like this ask yourself,
can he really do that?does he or she, whoever it is, do they really have that kind ofprescience? do they really have that kind of edge that they can pound the table and saydefinitively the bottom is in or this is the top or whatever the reason, you know, whatever the call is,something like that? the reason i'm saying that isbecause i'm trying to,
through these videos as well as stock andoptionmarketmentor.com, by the way guys in the omm forum, awesome jobtoday, i understand that was rockin' in there with a lot of great analysis ofsome great trades and all the children playing together really well inthe sand box, so i love that, thank you. but anyway, what i'm trying to do here andthe rest of the people on my team, is empower you. and you know empowerment; you knowwhere that starts from? it starts from
disempowering other people; in other words take everything you hear with about twograins of salt, preferably himalayan sea salt, which is really,really good, especially when mixed with almondbutter. but anyway, take things that people say with a grain ofsalt and ask yourself, where the heck is that coming from?again, whether it's a fundamental call or
technical call, just because somebody's on bloomberg orcnbc or you hear him on the radio or see an internet video, by the way i'm putting myself at the topof this list of people that you should be skeptical about. just because somebody's got a microphoneor a camera maybe that means they're goodenough to have a microphone and a camera and actually have an audience thatwill listen to them, but they're not so good that they knowstuff that you don't know.
i'll say it again, they're not so good that they know stuffthat you don't know or that you can't know with just a littlebit of thinking. and so i'm challenging you to start thinking for yourself, listen to what people are saying, readwhat people are writing, but then put it in your own mill, put it in your own grinder, put itin your own bag and shake it up, because you are the one that knows, more
than anybody else, about your finances; because if you start making trades basedsolely on what dan fitzpatrick says or what anybody else says, then let's face it, it's really not yourtrade anyway, it's just mine, and unless you have my cell number andare inclined to call me up and of course i'm inclined to answer and tellyou exactly when to get out of that trade,
then you're not a trader you're just somebody who's workingon a tip. so don't do that, take advantage of all the resources thatyou have and then ultimately make your own decision. now, with that said, take what i have to say with agrain of salt, make your own decisions, but i don't think apple's ( $aapl apple inc )done going down.
i didn't think it was done goingdown before earnings, i just didn't know, because it could've screamed up to$600.00 or higher on a great number or it could have been pounded to $450.50 on bad numbers. but the path of least resistance is down, idon't have to, especially if you remember, you've been hearing me talk about thisforever, i don't have to point out this head and shoulder pattern to you
with the neckline, that's obvious, very obvious frankly,anybody who's a technical trader should look at a chart like this and go,oh! head and shoulders. okay, and i'm not talking shampoo, so you take this distance here between $500.00 and wherever theheck this thing was, i think $710.00or whatever, and then you subtract it from the neckline break which is$500.00,
and you have what's called a measured move. well, that right now, that measured moveis right around three, i think like $310.00, $320.00,something like that, it's right back to here. and so i think frankly apple ( $aapl apple inc )could fall that low, i'm certainly not predicting it, and even if it does it's not going to fallin a straight line, it's an awesome company,
it's just that their growth rate isslowing, they're still growing, but not as fast as they were. so this company has some fundamental issues that impact howmuch somebody would pay for the company; they used to be paying a lot for growth, now, not so much. now i think this dividend is actuallygoing to become pretty important.
two percent now is not that much, itdoesn't get your attention when the stocks down ten, but at some point the stocks going to get down to wheremoney managers are looking at this and saying, "hey!" "you know it's still apple( $aapl apple inc ), it's a great tech company, absolutely!" "i want to own it and a little dividend,you know that's pretty cool to." so you will see some buyers coming in here,
but don't get sucked into this, like somebody's pounding the tablesaying how apple's ( $aapl apple inc ) really cheap right now, fine, before you go hit the buy button see ifanybody else is, see if the stocks actually moving higher, because if it's not moving higher thenobviously the market does not agree with the guy who's saying it's on afundamental basis, this is a really cheap stock. on a fundamental basis, frankly, apple( $aapl apple inc ) wasreally cheap here and it was cheap here
and hear and here, certainly hear and here, all the way down. it's been cheap, cheap, cheap, so do youthink apple's( $aapl apple inc ) cheap here? heck yeah! it's really cheap. so cheap doesn't cut it, it's got to bemore than cheap, and what i'm saying is it's got to have some accumulation ofbuyers. the stock has just got to be done going down, and that's going to require, in my view, more liquidation, because there's a lotof folks, a lot of investors
who are long apple ( $aapl apple inc ).you know what? i'm even long apple ( $aapl apple inc )in a long term investment account that i have,go figure, i'm pounding the table for 200points saying how you've got to get out ofapple ( $aapl apple inc ) but i got it in one of my long-termaccounts; that's where diversification works for you. so the bottomline is this, just don't be rushing out to buyapple ( $aapl apple inc ),it's just another stock now. remember dell, remember microsoft, remember cisco, remember hewlett packardback in the late nineties, early two
thousands? those all had a pretty nasty fall fromgrace, intel, same thing. so apple ( $aapl apple inc )does indeed have a way to go onthe downside, so don't be standingin front of this falling knife trying to catch it, just let it do what it's goingto do. with the abundance of things thatare going up, do you really need to be fixated onapple ( $aapl apple inc ) at all? because i can tell you unless something reallyweird happens,
you're not going to hear me talking aboutit out in front of the curtain, meaning in these free chart videos, i maybe chatting about it in strategy sessions and weekendupdates for members, but even then, memo to you members, this is not going to be a focal point of my analysis, it's like i reallydon't care about this, i was hoping that it would bouncebecause i could short it, and frankly because i've been talking about,to quote myself, "shorting the
snot out of apple ( $aapl apple inc ) if it breaks downbelow $500.00," i think i've got to go ahead and short thisstock just to prove myself not being a liar. so that's all i got, stay away from this thing, that's all.okay members, over to the strategy session; sorry we're out a little bitlater than usual but that's the weird thing about life, it happens.
