david trungale: 2 stocks to look at now, gold outlook, cash, stop losses & more // investing trading david moadel investing stock market silver david modell today i'll be speaking with mr. david trung gale mr. trong gale is the president and founder of the traitor tours study course and newsletter
aapl stock quote, located on the web at trader tours and that's with an s at the end dot-com this trader tours com i'm really excited about it it examines everything i'm
interested in financial markets stocks options etfs and commodities so you definitely want to check that out mr. trung gaels trading approach underscores technical analysis and specifically focuses on trend following principles which i'll be asking about today so thank you mr. trung gail so much for joining me today david's a pleasure
thank you again for the invite yeah absolutely i can't wait to tap into your insight today so 2017 is well underway now but some say that the quote unquote trump trade is starting to fade a little bit people are starting to hedge and they're starting to wonder how should i hedge what is the best way to do that in seven in 2017 if people are heavily into
equities right now well i think not necessarily the best way to hedge but to mitigate risk is to move your equities into cash the problem with hygiene is that certain things go down while others go up and if you try and over diversify your portfolio a not move can negate a down move and you really end up treading water so what i personally do i have a
lot of cash in my account right now a lot of the stocks i'm holding or big blue chips defensive dividend plays that way i get a check every three months and the beauty about dividends and some of these defensive stocks is that as you get that check in addition to that they hold their value well especially dear in what seems to be the later stages of
a bull market and this market could go a little bit higher day but it's hard to anticipate for sure so many people are equipped to try and call a top continuously but remember as we're following trends you don't always want to be guessing i'm a big believer in analysis so instead of guessing when the market is going to top out you want to
be analyzing it and looking for clues looking for things such as moving averages crossing looking for critical support and resistance levels to be tested or broken so i'm a big believer in analysis and like i said i think the best medicine here is cash cash is in fact a position i totally agree with that and i'm glad that you're not a top
collar because in my estimation top calling is not a game that people can win in most cases yeah yeah totally wanted to talk about gold and silver i get a lot of questions about gold and silver should i be holding it right now and if so should i be holding the physical stuff or is it okay to go into etfs such as gld slv what is your
opinion on that i do think that the physical metals are a better play if you are concerned about a crisis now again i'm not a big fan of gold and silver right now and i haven't been for a long time i started shorting the freshest metal sector since 2012 and we've hit a bottom it could be a permanent bottom but it may also be temporary it's hard
to tell in late 2015 so here's the thing i agree with a lot of the libertarian ideas out there and i think they're right in terms of trying to preserve capitalism limit government power recognizing in a long-term inflation is a problem these are all very valid points but with that being said if you look at the grand movement in the mining
and precious metal sector i think the best time to buy it i know this is going to sound like a silly remark in hindsight but you have to go back and look at the observations and look at what happened here so the best time to be long battles was from 2000 through 2011 the right play from 2011 until 2050 was too short the sector and this is
just looking at the percentage moves and looking at what actually happened and after markets go up and crash down they tend to become a very monotonous and golf so if you look at the spot price of sold for instance where maybe somewhere around seventeen or eighteen dollars per ounce right now i didn't check it today but that price has been holding now for
a long time i mean where were we a couple years ago also we're was right around 17 or 18 an ounce and like i said we hit that low point and late 2015 where it got as low as i think 13 14 ounce so markets tend to go sideways and very few people talk about that and this goes well beyond the the metals sector david if you talk about stocks you look
at all these other industries just turn on the tv and you'll see you know what a laughingstock it is i mean you have people talking up markets talking about a crisis talking about a boom all of these things but you got remember reporters are paid to fill up their papers even when nothing is happening so looking at the metal sector it's been
pretty dull yes it seems like we sustained a support level and perhaps the bottom is in but i don't see a whole lot of explosive upside i haven't seen a lot of explosive upside like i said the last time i observed that was way back the mid-2000s so did you want to move on to the dow jones or did you want me to try and assess metals a little bit more
in a short-term basis i think people would love to hear the short term and you just brought up such a great point about tuning out the noise not listening to every analyst every report out there and just keeping to the facts and not fighting the trend that is that is so huge and so important and that's what trader tours com is all about and we'll
talk about that in a minute but sure the short-term outlook what would that be for you and here's the thing you know the short-term i'll take a stab it's always the hardest to anticipate so when i analyze trends what we're looking at is moving right so i like to go back and look at a 10-year graph then i boil it down to five years one year three months
and i define the short term is anywhere from today to the next three months or so intermediate it's going to be three months to a year long term one year five years ten years so if you look at a short term chart of silver meaning the last month or so it does appear to be up so the short term trend is bullish but in the last week or so it's rolled over
and you have to remember that may is a notorious month for sell-offs so in the short term what would i expect perhaps a slight retreat but there is a temporary floor at around the fifteen dollar per ounce level so i think we might roll down a little bit but i'm not expecting anything dramatic to happen and gold pretty much a similar pattern as you
know and a lot of your followers know is they do tend to move together although silver and has it tends to be a little more aggressive both to the upside and downside i would say it's more of a leveraged instrument absolutely a traitor tours com i'm looking at the website right now i like it a lot i recommend people check it out i notice
you have a home study course with a special going on right now as well as a newsletter subscription can you tell me about that sure i actually recently bundled the fire website into one package and here's essentially what it is so as you join the program you actually get shipped out right to your door a dvd package as well as a workbook
on technical analytics something i designed myself and the beauty of it is it covers everything from a to z how to set up an account unlock what specific patterns to look for i have live audio recordings as well as a visual that shows a couple of live trades and the dvd is to try and keep things as simple as possible for beginners but also there
are a lot of details regarding market patterns in it as you join that you're on the newsletter subscription from one year that gives you an opportunity to look over my shoulder as i put out different trades and economic ideas in the letter and after one year is up you have the option to just renew the email portion of the letter granted you know
the dvds and the workbook are yours to keep forever in addition to that i put out a new referral plan that's not necessarily covered on the homepage of the site but as you join you are given a refer code and that gives you an opportunity to pull an additional income by actually marketing the course so you have a
chance to work for me right under my wing and go ahead and make some extra commission money by marketing the program sounds like a good deal everybody should check that out for sure and can they contact you at trader tours dot-com at gmail com sure that's a company email feel free to send any any questions i'm usually pretty good about
responding to the emails and there's also a contact us forum if anyone wants to utilize that on the website as well very good sir and i will post all of that in the video description of course i want to talk about stop-loss orders some people believe in averaging down averaging down others believe in stop-loss orders what is your philosophy
on that well here's the thing there is a trade-off with every action that you take so a stop loss and i have utilized them a lot in the past right now with the defensive stocks that i own i actually don't have any in let's do to the current market action but the stop loss can be a powerful tool for limiting your risk the downside obviously the
trade-off is that a little bit of market volatility can continuously stop you out over and over again so it kind of comes down to individual preference if you can get a feel for where you want to put your stop losses some traders perhaps want a little bit more breathing space and that way they're not going to get stopped out over and over but i am a
proponent of using them and trying to limit downside risk dollar endowment lee a fan of it but that doesn't mean i can't work of course it can work i just think that when you dollar down you're investing against the trend and ultimately trying to forecast that a bottom is in sight right the whole idea behind the idea of dollar inbound is
you're assuming that the stock is going to reverse and go up in the long term so i would say if you're gonna dollar down do so with large companies that have a track record of earnings and recovering and price with commodities or some of the smaller apps i think dollar and down becomes progressively more of a gamble because
you know the s&p 500 dow jones even though yes i do think that we could go into a bear market here at some point they do have a track record of rising long term due to the long-term earnings and some stocks that are smaller you know it's more of a crap shoot where they can go bankrupt they can go under and those a dollar down during the fair
market can really get hurt bad so you have to be a little bit careful with dollar and down but again everyone has their own style want to talk about short selling you've been known for doing that very successfully in the commodities market is short selling for everybody is it something that any retail trader can learn how to do well anybody can learn
how to do it but to address your other question is it for everybody the answer is no there's a lot of risk associated with that and specifically when i shorted the commodity sector i mostly use put options and i like staying as a buyer on the options trade because as you buy a foot option the most you could possibly lose is the premium that you
pay for so there isn't this unlimited risk you know i'm going to wipe myself into bankruptcy type of deal so you should go into every trade and it's very important to be cognizant of how much you're risking what's the potential reward and never go into a trade if you don't understand the mechanics because you don't want to risk any more that you
can afford to lose so this is why it's important that cash on the side it's important to have some loose cashing portfolio and yes if you're going to consider some type of short trade up feel free to shoot me an email do my best to give you an accurate assessment but no it's not for everybody definitely not for everybody i totally agree with
you on that so people love it when i put out a video that has actionable trading ideas are there any companies stocks etfs or just sectors that maybe people are not looking at that they should be right now yes of course i have my exclusive list when you join the program but a couple ideas and this is may entertain a few
people there so what morris mcdonald's that think are good long-term companies that kind of hold up well during recessions people say come on mcdonald's you know give me a break that's you know very unoriginal well again i don't care something's unoriginal or or not the goal of trading is to make money so i don't care how simplistic the idea is i
don't care if it sounds silly show me the money that's what we're trying to do here as traders for calculated we are deliberate and we want to make a profit so if you look at the graphs of companies like i said mcdonald's are philip morris that you know people are going to consume cheeseburgers you know that people are going to continue to
smoke and use tobacco products those are safe bets and they tend to hold up well during market turbulence plus they pay dividends which is good during a neutral market as well i like the sound of that dividends almost like a consistent paycheck wanted to talk about options for a moment another way to make a consistent paycheck at least according
to some people is to either write covered calls on stock that you already own or maybe selling puts is that something that you consider doing not so much right now if you're going to go down the options trade at this time i would tend to agree that selling covered calls though is a more conservative route that i would prefer like i said
unfortunately there is compensations that are made and trade-offs with every strategy so if you sold an out of the money covered call and it goes up in someone exercises yes you still came out with a profit but now you're out of the physician you're no longer getting that dividend checks so there are downsides with every with any strategy but i do
prefer covered calls over i would say over like ninety to ninety-five percent of the other options out there because there's a lot of risky trades that you can do as well that don't really have a track record of putting money in your pocket even they sound good in theory yeah and we got to be cognizant of that at all times and just wanted to mention
one more time traitor tours com a question that i get a lot is and and you probably get it too how much money do i need to start doing this and by doing this i mean trading or investing when you know and that's different for everybody what would you say if somebody asked you that right now number that i put out it's somewhere around two
thousand dollars for a minimum you certainly could start out with less and that's totally fine just going to take longer obviously the compounded interest build up an account growth but ultimately like you said it really depends on the individual what are their goals what are their expectations of what are they trying to do are they is
this a long-term value play over there just going to put you know a thousand dollars into a mutual fund or etf or they trying to get a little more aggressive and speculate their way to the top of this year so again if the answer is it depends but i would say a couple thousand dollars would be a good starting point i mean if you start out
with just two hundred dollars after commissions and whatnot it's almost not worth it see you do want to scrape together a fair amount of capital at least to start and doesn't have to be a lot but like i said there are other priorities to write get your debts paid off and there's a lot of other things that should come well before speculating
the markets gotcha and just one more question because i know your time is valuable i love to watch oil that's one of my favorite commodity is to both by on the long side and sometimes i buy puts on it is there anything worth doing in oil or other commodities right now there certainly could be if you ask me what i'm doing
personally i am not long or short oil nor the precious metal sector just because again i think there are other opportunities but that doesn't mean that you can't make money and either those sectors you certainly can and that's the great thing about being a traitor is if you're diligent and you know how to time the markets and use tools to assist you
you know you can make money during long-term bull market short-term bull markets bear markets so you know in any market if you trade it appropriately you can make money in any given week using technical analysis and all the due diligence that you put into it i feel confident that that money can be made in any market i just want to give you one
more opportunity to talk about trader tours com when people visit your website what are they going to see and what are you offering right now so again it's essentially just a study course bundled into one package where they're on the email newsletter list they get full support for myself i'm here to help you any questions can be directed to me you
also get the dvd package in the mail as well as the workbook that walks you through everything essentially there is to know about technical analysis and trading these recordings that i made myself ideas that i personally implement to help get you in the right track with in dusty but the bottom line here is again my door is open anyone else a
question whether you're a subscriber or not i mean i'll do my best to give you at least my honest opinion fantastic well right now i'm going to go out and check out some philip morris and some mcdonalds and hey you know if you recommend it it's probably pretty darn good because i love me some dividends and i love me some mcdonalds philip
morris you know maybe i don't partake in it myself but hey nothing wrong with getting the stock though minute comes what the what the public wants you know what where is the demand at so even though you know if you don't consume tobacco you know what does everyone else doing where is their money going so those are things that now you have to
watch and really accept the market for what it is that's another thing that i tell my subscribers is now i look at lot of things out there whether it's in the macroeconomic world or just in general society and i think man that's kind of stupid lma be but you know i i'm no you know i can't challenge millions of people and i can't stop them from from
doing what they're going to do so as an investor it's very important to it to adapt and like i said look at what's working look at what actually works makes sense to me mr. david trunk i'll check out trader tours com contact him by email at trader tours com @ gmail.com links all in the description of the video mr. trunk gail thank you so much
for your time today i really appreciate it david thank you again this has been fun and i hope to speak with you again at some point thank you for watching please like comment and subscribe and i'll see you next time
