apple ( nasdaq:aapl ) announced earnings;finally they did something that got buyers interested. stock buyback, like ninety-bazillion more shares ordollars, i think it's like 300 billion, something like that. they'regoing to do a seven-for-one stock split,
aapl stock real time, they don't have any new products, but apparently that's coming;who knows what it is, but it's going to be an "i" something or other. a greatquarter,
everybody liked it right, so where'sthe stock? the stock right now is trading at 565.00,where has the recent high been? let's look at it, you can say, "oh yeah but dan, i told you the stock'sgoing to go back to 700.00." okay, well good luck with that sherlock, sure, ultimately it might, but it's notgoing to be tomorrow, it's not going to be next week, it'snot going to be six months from now; guarantee you. it's not going to be
six years from now, i guarantee you. do you know why i can guarantee you that,because they're splitting seven-for-one, it's not going to be up at 700.00for quite a while. what i care moreabout is what's happening tomorrow, what's happening on thursdaymorning. i have instincts too, normal reactions, my first thought was, wow! you'vebeen waiting for apple ( nasdaq:aapl )to do something good for so long, this thing has gapped up, i'll bet that thing will gap up and even
run higher tomorrow. you know what, i'll bet it's a good thing tobuy at the open, that could be it. in the past like otherthings you sell them at the open when they gap up this much, butapple ( nasdaq:aapl )could be different. whenever i find myself thinkingthat way i've got to stop and check and say, "wait a minute dan, are you falling prey to the normalhuman instincts that actually kill us every time, because the markets rigged
to take all of our money?" a lot of timesthe answer is yes; i will tell you this, if i had to choose, and i don't because i get to choosetomorrow morning, but if i had to choose between buyingand selling at the open, if i had to choose, had to, gun to headbuy or sell, i would sell. why? well because the stocks up a lot; folks that bought before earnings, theonly reason they bought before earnings is because they think the stocksgoing to pop. the stock popped, hence sell
after earnings pop, that's the way itgoes. also this stock is up close to resistance here, that's another reason tosell. so first thing in the morning i'm going to be looking to sell, i'm notgoing to sell i'm going to be looking for evidence thattruly sellers are overwhelming buyers; if there's not aggressive demand for thestock in the morning then it's not going to open up here, that's just the way it goes, because abid has to be met
with an offer, so there's going to beaggressive buying in the morning. i care more about where the stock istrading at 9:33 or 9:35 than i do where the stock is trading at9:30. at 9:30 i know the stock is going to betrading somewhere up here, but at 9:33 i know this, the stock is not going to be trading at that same level, it might be above, it might be below; ultimately the bulls andthe bear
are the arbiters of where the stock isgoing to go. i think you've got to be nimble tomorrow morning, i would not be buyingthis right at the open, if you just get the can't help its thenjust buy a little bit. if you're long the stock and you werewaiting for this, sell half at the open, you mightwant to sell it all, but sell half at the open and then ifthe stock does run you're happy you didn't sell it all. but ultimately and i've mentioned thisbefore, recently, i think it was in
the strategy session, the fact that thisstock was trading above the 200-day moving average,it had been trickling lower here, 50-day moving average trending down, thefact that it was trading above this 200-day moving average, and i actuallyhave an article coming out on this on "real money", i thinkthey publish my stuff on "real money pro", i'm not sure, but this symmetrical triangle above the 200-day moving average, priortrend was higher this gives you a really strong bias for an
upside move. i mentioned thatrecently, i wasn't pounding the table about it to where you've got to buy this before earnings, but what i was saying was you've got to have an upside biason the stock. that's happening, now you've got to lookat this level and just know this, if the stock doespush through this level that's going to have been a heck of a run in aday, or two, and that is going to beg for profit-taking,so i think there's pretty strong resistance here.
here's my take on this stockfor the next couple of months or whatever, i think youdefinitely want to be buying this stock on any kind of dip; i don't think it'scoming back down here, they had a great quarter, they've got some good things coming, but i want you to be careful when thecompany splits its stock. look at what happened withmastercard ( nyse:ma ), ten-for-one, this has been an unmitigateddisaster, if this thing keeps going anylower they would have been better off splitting their stock
two-for-one, because effectively theprice is going to be that, this has been horrible. the same thing withgoogle ( nasdaq:goog ), or g-o-o-g-l for those of you who reallycare, i personally don't because i don't voteat shareholder meetings and they trade the same; equal volume 2.0 million, that would betwo million, two million okay, so what's thedifference? look what happened when they splittwo-for-one, they haven't even come close, well i guess they came close but they're
well below this. so i want you to becareful about apple ( nasdaq:aapl ),everybody gets all lathered up, oh!, seven for one split. my bet is,those of you that are all excited have been trading for at least 14 years,because you remember what it was like in the nineties when a company split itsstock, remember jdsu, "just don't sell us", i had a different one,"just do split us", i mean not company split more times than i've ever seen another stock split,and then of course they did a
massive reverse split because it gotdown near zero. the bottom line is apple ( nasdaq:aapl )is going to be trading on a much more liquid, as if it'snot liquid now, almost 14 million shares; shares are going to be easier to buy, andthey're saying, "well you know we want to make it moreaffordable for the retail investor to buy." no, they want to get in the dow 30, that's why they want to do it.all of this,
"well we just want tomake it more affordable for the individual investor." that's nice for you to say, but it reallydoesn't mean anything because that's not why a company splitsits stock; they have other reasons for doing it, andi think those are fine reasons; good for you, why don't you just say, "we're splitting our stock because we'rehoping that we can get in the dow 30, and then we can travel along with therest of the market instead of being mired in all this muck
for so long, so that's why we're doingit. after all microsoft is in there and theyreally stink up the joint; have you seen windows 8, why can't i get back to windows 7, when it says we have a new version of windows 8 and then there's two boxes. go to thestore or remind me later why can't i have a thirdbox that says don't ever ask me again?" that'smicrosoft in the dow. i would love to have apple ( nasdaq:aapl )get in there instead; sadly
they will probably be in there alongsideof them, at which time i would absolutely buy apple ( nasdaq:aapl ), and i would buy apple ( nasdaq:aapl )in microsoft terms, in other words short microsoft andbuy apple ( nasdaq:aapl ), there's a trade for you.
