hello again everyone this is joe hentges with beyond the chart, in this technical analysis of the stock market video we're going to focus on the nasdaq this week and look at the daily and weekly chart
apple stock price january 2009, and then the semiconductors which got killed on thursday so we'll look at the smh semi-conductor etf and four semiconductors stock so stay tuned
alright let's start off here with the nasdaq composite the nasdaq composite has been weaving out an ending diagonal pattern here and it's been doing it since the bottom here in february as intermediate wave 4 is what i've got down here at the bottom in february and we've had one, two, three, four and 5th wave i do think there's a high
probability this 5th wave is completed up here at about 5,400 the high was 5398 the close was 5398 so i'm labeling it as the fifth minor wave of the 5th intermediate wave now we've gotten three closes back below the 10 exponential moving average and usually once you start to see that especially i'm looking for at least two closes and
then you get a break of the low and you start to get some continuation and you're starting to get a break down now we don't have the 10 crossing below the 21 like we did over here it's not yet and the the real key that i'm looking for is if it breaks this trend line in here which is in the 5150-52 depending on how long it takes to come
down here could happen next couple of days but i think that will be the first real sign that this whole the whole pattern is breaking down and then of course the next sign will be taking out this low back here of november 4th so that is the picture on the daily chart if you go ahead and look at the weekly chart is very very similar
pattern and did we close below the 10 on the weekly 5252.96 no we did not, we're slightly above it so again we're watching the see do we get breakdown and then the moving average crossover on a weekly chart but this is the pattern the pattern is very similar to what we had as the ending diagonal of intermediate wave three this was the 5th
wave fifth minor wave of intermediate wave 3 this on the other hand is one degree higher this is the fifth intermediate wave at the ending fifth 5th wave pattern of this whole five wave impulse cycle coming up from the bottom of march 2009 alright so that's the picture on the nasdaq let's take a look at the
semi-conductor etf now this has continued to trend up over last several months it's been in a very solid trend since february as has a lot of the market but now we've got this big break that occurred on on thursday and we're coming really really close to this trend line that's in place here over last oh, four to five months and if we break that trend line
i think the next support areas not that far below, 66 but if that doesn't hold you gotta go you're going to be down here in the 62.5-63 area i just don't see any other support before we get to that, that level now if we look at this on a weekly basis let me turn it into a weekly chart what you're going to see is that there is significant
divergence that's occurring on the demand index the indicator did not go to a new high on this last move on di plus, the blue line is the buying it did not move to a new high and on the relative strength and i use the 10-day rsi in here you can see it's just not confirming this entire move at all so it keeps thrusting up its had 1,2, the third
thrust up and the the indicators are signaling bearish divergence in here so right now that's a pretty good sign that this has got a good chance of breaking down, continuing to break down of course the first step is breaking that trend line that i just talked about alright that's semiconductors etf let's take a look first of all at
cirrus logic this one dropped 10.3 percent on thursday it was the big loser that i saw of a bunch of semiconductors that were down now it looks like it dropped out of this consolidation area here yes it did there was support that came in here at 47 back in when was this? september 12th, so i would say that's the next potential support area but if that doesn't hold we
got this big gap sittin over here is just begging to be closed and that doesn't get closed until you get to 43 so that's the picture that i see on cirrus logic the next one is microchip technology it was down seven-and-a-half percent on thursday and what i'm seeing on microchip is that it broke this trend line and you know again
we had these two points right in here but it really is giving the picture of the trend line all the way up since february so basically most of this year and now we get a break below it in here yeah there's a little bit of potential support right down in here and i would think this tried to close the gap over here we didn't quite do it so we could
come down and be testing this area also which is a low 57.52 so it's going to be really interesting to see you know just what kind of what kind of support we get on mchp as we get into the 59 to 60 area so that is the first break down that's occurring on microchip and then the third one is qorvo and i'm probably not
pronouncing that correctly when i look at the daily chart this isn't quite as clear as i'll show you the weekly chart them in a minute but this does look like a little bit of a topping formation that happened with first of all broke this trendline you know back in when was this august yeah in august and then it just pulled
back and hug the trend line for several weeks and then pulled away and then now kind of form this topping formation broke down on that topping out of that on november 4th look at the big gap and so you think oh ok well maybe is like a little head and shoulders pattern of some kind and it's breaking down and then what did it do, it just reversed and
came up and just closed the gap it closed the gap here on november 18th and 21st you know inter-day highs and now has just rolled back over and roll back down qorvo was down 6.3% on thursday when you look at the weekly chart this is all the trading on it and the weekly close is the lowest close lowest weekly close of
the last six months so it's looking pretty weak look like his looks like it's trying to roll over in here ah and that's the picture...the next support area hmm maybe all the way down here at 45 let me take a look at the daily again well yeah i mean that's the next definite... where buying came in a 44-45 so
right now you know it's going to look to see testing this low here at 48.28 the low yesterday was 49.53 so this is interesting does look like it is rolling over and then the last one we're going to take a look at is qualcomm and qualcomm i talked about in a post and video on october 29 that i talked about how i thought that maybe the top was in for
qualcomm and that was right back in here i was seeing bearish divergence and of course did not see this this head and shoulders top yet it hadn't quite developed we came down we came right to this this low here and pulled back up now i thought maybe this right shoulder might move up a little bit higher than what it did but it did not, broke this little trendline
and has rolled back down and qualcomm dropped almost 6% on thursday now to me i think that this little head and shoulders top is confirmed with the break the fact that close below this neckline which was really about 64.30 now yesterday we got a pretty good little snapback rally what did we do, we pull back fifty
percent of this two-day move okay from this high to this low has pulled back a little over fifty percent not quite two 61.8 so i think it was around 55% or so so now i'm watching for this what i'm expecting this to do is to continue to come back down and i think the next support area is going to be right here at 60 where it got support
two times prior to that and if that doesn't hold i mean the head-and-shoulders target for this move is right here at 58 and of course a gap close is slightly below that at 56 so those are the things i'm looking at and umm we are, i did get my insider members into puts on this on this stock on the 29th that was our entry day on
the 29th so far it's working out very well one thing i want to point out is the weekly chart which i did talk about back on the 29th and so it's a little messy, i apologize for that because i'm showing the weekly chart on a daily on a daily charts , kind of just converted it but here's this trendline i want to just point out to you and we had this huge peak
in the 2000 tech blow off and then we've just we've had this really extended counter-trend rally did not go to new high, broke that trend line in 2015 and then we pulled back up right to that trend line twice and now appear to be topping out and rolling... and you know coming back down so i find that really really interesting that this entire move from the
low here in february to the highs here in september and october is a pullback to that long-term trend line alright that's what we're looking...let me come back to the daily chart that's the picture on qualcomm and i'll have a link in today's post on my website back to that video which was on video and post i
talked about this in october 29th alright everyone that's it for this weekend if you're not watching this on my website, head on over to the website and check out the other posts i've got for you and the other things on my website everyone have a great weekend we'll talk to you on the next video
