stock market triming good morning stephen whiteside here with the daily market outlook for friday, march 2, 2012 in the premarket this morning at 7:30 am on the east coast, we of stock index futures slightly below fair value, commodities are fairly flat. not expecting a lot of volatility at the open on friday morning. thursday was another day in which the disposition of the market was still very sunny
aapl stock zacks, volatility was still extremely low, in fact for many of the major indexes we had an inside day, and of course an inside day is a day of indecision the s&p 500 we an inside day. the nasdaq 100 was able to move slightly higher on thursday canadian stock market ,most of the major indexes actually had an inside day yesterday so a day of indecision.
each morning at take a look at the price of bonds and the 30 year bond is once again back on a sell signal. now it's been very choppy and the bond market for quite awhile now in very hard to make money one of the reason watching the price of bonds as i know that a lot of money is hiding there and the i wanna see that money come out to help fuel the rally in the stock market and you might assume this headline yesterday at investors hold the most bonds since september 2010 so the average investor is putting money into the bond market and the bond market is performed very well. this is a monthly charge of the bonds but remember when bonds rise the yields go down so here we have people buying bonds up here at all time highs and the last time we were in that area was back when guess what, the stock market was
crashing. and so here is a monthly chart of the dow and the you can compare you can see that money went into bonds as the stock market was crashing and were you know right now the stock market is having a great rally and what are people doing their hiding their money in the bond market at some point in the future that discrepancy between where money is and where it should be is gonna be rectified but, unfortunately i think it's gonna be too late for those people in the bond market when they finally do pull their money into bonds and want to go into stocks. i think that's probably the time and place when the stock market will once again crash
taking a look at the u.s. dollar in was up yesterday we need a close above 79.14 you give this a buy signal the euro was down yesterday we need to close below 132.50 to give this a sell signal and the canadian dollar moved higher yesterday. iit has now taken out previous resistance and now we're looking for move up to 1.03 next up let's take a look at to the major u.s. commodity et f's starting with the coal. no change for coal yesterday we still need to close above 35.86 market vectors coal etf (kol) to give this a buy signal. crude oil ) moved higher on thursday of next door to the upside is 43.75 united states oil fund (uso) america's number one export item continue to move higher yesterday. for united states gasoline fund lp (uga,), we need to close below 55.33 to give this a sell signal on friday.
and for one of the hardest products to export continue to move lower on thursday. for united states natural gas fund (ung) were looking for close above 21.45 to give this a buy signal. we had an inside day for ipath dow jones ubs copper (jjc) on thursday we had inside day for gold. gold is holding supported the 50 / 100 day moving average still projecting a move down of the 200 day moving average. spdr gold trust (gld) and we had an inside day for ishares silver trust (slv) unlike gold, silver has not tested the moving average lines yet but we are anticipating a test in the not so distant future next up let's take a look at the major indexes that we follow and remember thursday was an inside day for many of these indexes, so not a lot of the data points, thursday was a day of
indecision. so lets the move back a little into a star with the looking at a weekly chart for the s&p 500 at this time last year we had trouble that the 1375 level snd so here we are once again up of 1375 and are looking to see if we can break out above. if we drilled down 1375 is also a daily target and we are getting pretty close to the top of our daily range and you can see we're having trouble getting through the 1375 level. and drill down even more it's an houlry target as well. and i can we build a poke our heads slightly above 1375 but the we're having trouble breaking above it and now friday morning were going to open lower. so no major breakdown of course and with an inside day on thursday you can't to confirm anything like that so what we are looking for a on friday is a daily close below 1355.90 to generate in a sell signal on friday. i don't think we're in a get that
but we will be watching the 1375 level a closely to see how the market handles it moving over, looking the nasdaq 100 a little bit of a different spin here how we've taken at last year's high, and now are moving up to our next to a projected target on the weekly charts up with a 2656.25 level. that's also the top of the range on our daily targets. of course if we break through the top of that range you will recalculate but to that was the top of our calculated playing field a few months ago and so here we are ways to have been able to drive straight up of basically over the past couple of months two that target and have not had a major break it's also our next hourly target to the upside. so we will have to see how the nasdaq 100 handles that. and on friday. it daily close below 2582.70 would generate in the sell signal. i don't think we're gonna get that but again i am watching of the upper level of our daily trading range to see how the market
handles that if we can break out or if we break down from here looking at the russell 2000 we talked about this the other day how we haven't it taken at the recent lows but certainly we are back on a sell signal for the russell 2000. and so lot of people consider that the smallcap index sililar situation for the zacks micro cap out were on a sell signal once again so small caps and micro cap stocks are starting to lead the market lower whether that gains momentum are not and pulls down the other a major indexes is the only yet to be told. looking at bank stocks we poked out above two of little above 200 yesterday the bank sect has been very bullish on the last couple of months a close below 195.04 on friday for the dow jones banking index would give this a new sell signal. looking at gold stocks phlx gold/silver sector (^xau), we had an inside a yesterday after the big down day on wednesday iif you look at the flypaper channel chart even see where once again stuck in the flypaper channel and so the bulls are looking for a
breakout of the recent high and that downtrend line of the bears are looking for a breakdown of below the recent low end of that uptrend line if you stand back a bit and look at this chart it's not a very a pretty picture a we've had a series of lower highs and so every wave of buying that's happened ,people have sold and that wave and driven the stocks backed down. and so once again this week we've made a lower high and that is bearish for the gold and silver stock sector taking a look it to apple computer , apple inc. (aapl) is coming out with a new shiny objects and of course a everybody's interested in that and so it's been a tremendously successful stock over the past couple of years. very overbought, panic buying right now up to the top of the panic zones, continues to move higher on the weekly chart of this is from last friday and so we're looking for a move up to 562.50
as our next target to the upside, drill down with the daily charts were getting pretty close to that level up here a and again just like the nasdaq 100 that's the top of our projected range for the stock. i doesn't guarantee its can hit it and of course it can in a break right through it if it does and will recalculate a new playing field. for the rest of the year but the right now that is our next door to the upside on the downside on friday at daly close below of 512.87 would give this and a sell signal on friday four apple computer next up let's take a look at the canadian stock market starting with the tsx an inside day yesterday inside a for s&p/tsx capped energy index (^sptten) stocks financial services s&p/tsx capped financials index (^spttfs) continue to move higher and though we talked about this couple weeks ago of bit the the resistance or the peak that we saw
up back in january might hold this market. and that is that not the case right now and so is deftly wrong about that and the stock that idea was focusing on at that time was the royal bank of canada (ry.to) and the royal bank has careened through that previous . high and the so that done much better than i expected it would. not all stocks in the sector participating right now we still have the bank of montreal (bmo.to) is stillon a sell signal agf management (agf-b.to)of a sell signal home capital (hcg.to) are at three stocks that are not doing very well at the present time looking at the gold index an inside day yesterday inside a for materials inside day for metals and mining and an inside day for the venture exchange so inside days again are days of indecision really no new data to talk about the market's looking to see if we take the previous day's high which will be bullish or the previous day's low which of course would be bearish
last of this morning a quick look at the 60 minute charts for the s&p 500 and the toronto stock exchange tsx starting with the s&p 500 any pullback down the 1359 level the bulls are still in control if we start breaking down below 1359 on an hourly basis we know the bears are in control the first sign of weakness on friday is an hourly close for the s&p 500 cash index below 1369.60. looking at the toronto stock exchange, we have a comedown the flypaper channel this week if we start breaking down below 12,600 than the bears are back in control on a short term basis. the first sign of weakness on friday is an alley close below 12,676 ok that's all for friday morning folks and that's all for me for this week have a great day have
a bit weekend and all talk to again on monday morning stephehn whiteside stocks marekt timing tv http://www.theuptrend.com/
